>Could do, but I think we'd be better to try to figure out what is
>optimal rather than proliferating options.
--x-12-arima behavior tells than even they
use a different algorithm, in practice the
behavior of their estimates is indistinguisheable
from my arima3

Finding a good non-transforming area could
require months of investigation.
At the other hand, a new option requires
only several minutes of your work.
Please, take into consideration the
following items for arima to be robust
with respect to convergence:
1) mimic a good pattern:
there are a lot of smart guys in US
Census Bureau; they preferred to make
theirs arima in such a way that for all
time I found literally only a couple
examples when arima ... --x-12-arima
fails to converge.
And I am sure that being smart they
do have reasons to comply the way
they do

2) model selection
(i) we have to decide whether to
take logs (or general Box-Cox transformation)
for the original y series
(ii) we have to select d = 0, or d = 1, or d = 2
using a unit root test
(iii) we have to select D = 0, or D = 1
using a seasonal unit root test
(iv) we have to decide whether to include
constant to the model
(v) we have to select the admissible region
for p,q,P,Q
Every one of the stages above can give
type I/II error
This means that after stage
(vI) select p,d,P,Q using some IC
we can come up with a
mis-specified model.
All this tells that in practice the
majority of models we estimate are
mis-specified. A mis-specified model
must be estimated and mis-specification
must be established by standard means:
1) bad polynomial roots
2) autocorrelation
And not the ather way around.

3) marketing consideration
The first thing of the representative user
after a non-convergence case is something
of a kind "bad soft"
Once more: non-convergence is a sub-optimal
mean
for bad specification diagnostics.
The standard means are to be preferred:
the first - get estimates
the second - to look at bad roots and
Q'-statistics p-value

Oleh







12 листопада 2018, 20:09:58, від "Allin Cottrell" <cottrell@wfu.edu>:

On Sun, 11 Nov 2018, oleg_komashko@ukr.net wrote:

>> I've just adjusted the first test to abs(mean(y)) > 200
> Dear Allin,
> 1) Do you have examples when doing transformation is
> worse than not doing?

No, I haven't tested for that. I think I've mentioned before, the 
conditionality for standardizing is in the function maybe_set_yscale() 
in plugin/arma_init.c. You may wish to try experimenting with that and 
see what recommendation you come up with.

[...]
> As for me, I'd prefer a new (standard) option, say --transf-y,
> or so to force the transformation

Could do, but I think we'd be better to try to figure out what is
optimal rather than proliferating options.

Allin