Hi all (and happy new year),

I just found that we have a bug when forecasting from a VECM with
exogeneity restrictions (only with certain options for the deterministic
part). Example:

<hansl>
open sw_ch14.gdt
infl = 100 * sdiff(log(PUNEW))
vecm 2 1 infl LHUR --crt --quiet

restrict --full
     b[1,1] = 1
     a[1,1] = 0
end restrict

fcast infl
</hansl>

If you remove the line "a[1,1] = 0", everything is ok. Otherwise, you get
this message:

<output>
VAR coefficient matrix B is of wrong size!

Error executing script: halting
</output>

and on stderr:

<stderr>
B should have 1 or 4 rows, but has 3
var->B (3 x 2)

  -0.00081327      0.14284
      0.43167     0.053219
     -0.58767      0.58294
</stderr>

This is with current git.

I'm just back, so I have quite a lot of stuff to look at before I have
time to debug this, but it'd be nice if you guys could try to have a look
at it too.

-------------------------------------------------------
   Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
   Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali (DiSES)

   Università Politecnica delle Marche
   (formerly known as Università di Ancona)

   r.lucchetti@univpm.it
   http://www2.econ.univpm.it/servizi/hpp/lucchetti
-------------------------------------------------------