Humour me please. Let us suppose we have an ARMAX(1,0,0) model with 2 independent variables and a constant.ie (1-ΦB)Yt = α +µ1*X1t +µ2*X2t where B is the lag or backshift operatorAssuming Φ is positive this is equivalent to
Yt =α + Φ*Yt-1 +µ1*X1t +µ2*X2twhich is relatively straightforward to check against Gretl output using the estimated coefficients and relevant rhs variables .However, the results of doing so do not correspond to the predicted or fitted values from Gretl.
I think section 31.2 of the user guide could be relevant here, which talks explicitly about ARMAX models and their subtleties.
cheers
sven