Hi Marcin

I will prepare a quick brief of what I am attempting to emulate plus some real data. The overall exercise is slightly more complicated than fitting a simple Bayesian trend as will become clear when I explain the methodology and its application.. You can then decide a) whether what they are doing can be replicated without knowledge of the prior they use; or b) whether what they are doing is really so full of statistical problems that the approach is essentially so theoretically weak that the context of using it for projection purposes is invalid/meaningless -which is my view -but I would appreciate that of Bayesian experts. Essentially in frequentist terms it is so oversimplistic as to be meaningless.