Dear Gretl-Users Community,
I am a political science student, who is working on a Master Thesis in 'What factors hinder economic growth of oil-producing countries?' through the case of Venezuela from 2001 to 2015. I have to admit that I have poor background in statistics but comfortable with using computer software, hence I am writing to seek for guidance in model correction and interpretation of dataset. I would like to determine the positive/negative correlations between Venezuela's GDP Growth and varying factors such as Oil Production, OPEC Spare Capacity, Economic Freedom etc. from 2001 to 2015 (annual basis). Could you guys please comment on my model, whether it fits for the aim of determining relationship and correlations between varying factors? Thank you
Using the time series ARIMA model, the Dependent var. = Venezuela's GDP Growth Rate
Here's the ADF Test of GDP Growth with lag of 2 from 14 data (annual).
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for GDP_Growthincluding 0 lags of (1-L)GDP_Growth
(max was 2, criterion AIC)
sample size 14
unit-root null hypothesis: a = 1
test with constant
model: (1-L)y = b0 + (a-1)*y(-1) + e
estimated value of (a - 1): -0.657506
test statistic: tau_c(1) = -2.29321
p-value 0.1868
1st-order autocorrelation coeff. for e: 0.131
with constant and trend
model: (1-L)y = b0 + b1*t + (a-1)*y(-1) + ... + e
estimated value of (a - 1): -0.935225
test statistic: tau_ct(1) = -3.03246
asymptotic p-value 0.1232
1st-order autocorrelation coeff. for e: -0.517