Hi again,

Am I missing something? In my case the data is not actually interpolated. I doesn't give me the "predicted" values for 55 and 56. It only shows the fitted values for the data I provided, but not the data I'm missing. Here is my output:

 For 95% confidence intervals, t(7, 0,025) = 2,365

           datavalues    prediction    std. error        95% interval

       1        215,00        24,31      121,471      -262,93 -   311,54
       2        220,00        48,61      122,030      -239,94 -   337,17
       3        200,00        72,92      122,957      -217,83 -   363,66
       4        195,00        97,22      124,243      -196,56 -   391,01
       5        190,00       170,14      130,132      -137,58 -   477,85
       6        185,00       194,44      132,723      -119,40 -   508,29
       7        170,00       218,75      135,600      -101,89 -   539,39
       8        150,00       243,06      138,744       -85,02 -   571,13

  Forecast evaluation statistics

  Mean Error                        56,944
  Mean Squared Error                12871
  Root Mean Squared Error           113,45
  Mean Absolute Error               94,757
  Mean Percentage Error             24,365
  Mean Absolute Percentage Error    48,319
  Theil's U                         7,1394
  Bias proportion, UM               0,25193
  Regression proportion, UR         0,74351
  Disturbance proportion, UD        0,0045524

As you can see, the forecast only shows the fitted values (8 value). It should be 10 values with the 1955 and 1956 values. Note the my current OLS estimation is very poor (see the bad prediction values), but that doesn't matter now.


Peter

On 2014/05/18 12:24 PM, Narandra Dashora wrote:

Peter

I used GRETL software . First I created the sheet on Excel and imported the file on GRETL. Then  I used the window Ordinary least Square and got the regression results. The again I used OLS and click Forecasts . The results have been the prediction for 1955-56. . Please feel free to communicate . I am from India therefore there may be time lag in communication 

On Sun, May 18, 2014 at 11:20 AM, Huffelpuff <huffelpuff420@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi,

Thanks for this Narandra. I'm still a bit confused how you actually did the interpolation.

This is what I've done:
1. Create a dataset with 8 entries. The dataset has a variable with the indexes (1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10) and a second variable that holds the stock prices.
2. I then estimate a model (for instance AR(1) or ARIMA) and used the stock prices as dependent variable and the indexes as the regressor.
3. Once estimated, I tried to forecast the values, but it only calculates the values for the given indexes, but not for index 5 and 6.

How exactly did you get the interpolated values? Directly via the GUI or with a hansl script?

Peter

On 2014/05/17 04:42 PM, Narandra Dashora wrote:

Give time series a numerical value such as 1 for 1950 and so on , But Give 1956 the value 7 . This will give you regression equation 

The put in the value of X. The solution of your problem may be by using 

Time	Stock
1	215
2	220
3	200
4	195
7	190
8	185
9	170
10	150

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