Hi

 

I have sent an e-mail to the mailing list, but I haven’t got so much success, I am going to rewrite the question to make it more understandable (I am not a native English speaker)

 

Basically, I have a dynamic prediction and I do not know why the standard error grows up (see below), does anybody have the formula or any paper where I can look into, thanks

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For 95% confidence intervals, t(4, 0.025) = 2.776

 

     Obs      Premium    prediction    std. error        95% interval

 

    2004        302.00       301.15

    2005        337.00       340.66

    2006        375.00       372.89

    2007                     407.25        2.792       399.50 -   415.00

    2008                     442.78        2.846       434.88 -   450.68

    2009                     474.53        2.848       466.63 -   482.44

    2010                     508.07        2.848       500.16 -   515.97

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The model is AR(1) with intercept, Prais-Winsten transformation (Cochrane-Orcutt).

 

Thank you very much, any help would be great.

 

Kind regards