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yesterday, after having taught my students the HP decomposition, I
wondered if I should also tell them that one of the greatest time-series
econometricians on Earth recently wrote a rather scathing paper entitled
"Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter", where he proposes
a simple alternative.
So this morning I rustled up a little script with Hamilton's filter. Here
function series hamcycle(series y, bool do_plot, string title[null])
h0 = 2 * $pd
h1 = h0 + 4
list PROJ = y(-h0 to -h1)
ols y 0 PROJ -q
# ht = $yhat
hc = $uhat
title = argname(y)
diff8 = y - y(-h0)
setinfo diff8 --graph-name="Random walk"
setinfo hc --graph-name="Regression"
list PLT = diff8 hc
options time-series with-lines
literal set linetype 1 lc rgb "#ff0000"
literal set linetype 2 lc rgb "#000000"
literal set key top right
printf "set title '%s'", title
end plot --output=display
setobs 4 1947:1
data gdpc1 expgsc1 pcecc96
list Y = gdpc1 expgsc1 pcecc96
LY = logs(Y)
strings Titles = strsplit("GDP Exports Consumption")
k = 1
# reproduce part of figure 6
loop foreach i LY --quiet
hc = hamcycle($i*100,,Titles[k++])
Should we turn this into a function package?
Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali (DiSES)
Università Politecnica delle Marche
(formerly known as Università di Ancona)
because of Corona a lot of teaching is switching to online distance
formats. I am not yet directly affected, but thinking about the future I
was wondering what options exist. Please share your ideas and experiences.
- Skype: (Only) the whole screen can be shared AFAIK; so this would work
in principle. Doing this with many participants may not be so great, but
I guess everybody can judge for themselves.
- Zoom: is it true that only a certain application window can be chosen
to be shared? I like that approach, but for gretl with its many windows
it would be a problem.
- Go-to-Meeting: similar problem as with Zoom, I think (but would need
A workaround for the many-gretl-windows problem may be to run a version
of gretl with GTK3 and use the "broadway" technology to redirect the
gretl interface into a single browser window (locally), which could then
be shared in the videoconference. (The build with GTK3 is standard on
modern Linux distros, but the official Windows version is with GTK2.)
Any other ideas?
Synchronous online teaching is demanding. If you consider asynchronous teaching you can simply videotape the screen (possibly including yourself via the laptop camera) and audio using Open Broadcaster Software (OBS Studio) and upload the video. Q&A sessions can afterwards be realized using chat rooms or open meeting rooms (we use OpenOLAT in Hamburg).
To be honest, I have not yet used synchronous online teaching only videotaped screens with tutorials using OBS.
Some ideas for alternatives to Skype and Microsoft Teams and the sharing solutions therein (not sufficiently tested):
Jitsi meet with the respective Chrome extension: no accounts, anonymous, open source, encryption. I used it only for conference calls but it seems to be very simple
Maybe it helps a bit.
Beste Grüße, U. F.
> Am 28.03.2020 um 14:38 schrieb Sven Schreiber <svetosch(a)gmx.net>:
Dear all greatl folks, greetings from Paris.
Things are getting rough like in Italy, the US are badly hurt and show
alarming contagion evolution (accelerating contagion growth). At last the
leaders seem to cooperate...
I write just to recall that there is an international distributed computing
program to help the struggle against this horror.
Here is the link to folding@home program:
By the way, here is a very interesting article in French:
you can have a good translation with this little known translator:
Courage and support to all, take care.
UMR 8568 CNRS - EHESS, ENPC, AgroParisTech, CIRAD
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
I gave a couple of Gretl-based lectures using MS Teams from the
university net with a class of about 80 students. I shared the screen as
in Skype (the engine is the same). The students had Teams inb one
window, Gretl in another, followed and reproduced my actions. Overall it
worked out reasonably well.
* no connection problems (I posted a questionnaire to make sure, they
all rated the connection ok)
* you can record the lecture, which is then uploaded automatically on
MS's server (Stream) - that is, if the server is not overloaded, as
it is currently, in which case only the audio appears and the video
may follow in the future. Students appreciate this feature a lot
* need to be careful not to go too fast
* personally, I feel pretty stupid while talking aloud alone in my
office, but I am getting used to it :-)
bye and take care
Professore Ordinario di Statistica Economica
Dip. di Scienze Statistiche
Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
P.le A. Moro 5 - 00185 Roma - Italia
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* Emergenza Coronavirus: facciamoci contagiare dalla solidarietà
aiutando i nostri ospedali universitari
Le donazioni possono essere
inviate alla Fondazione Roma Sapienza che devolverà il ricavato al
Policlinico Umberto I e Ospedale Sant'Andrea.
È possibile donare:
bonifico bancario (iban: IT72P 01030 03213 000063 259373, bic: PASCITM1R13,
beneficiario "Fondazione Roma Sapienza", causale "emergenza coronavirus")
– con carta di credito, attraverso il PayPal della Fondazione Sapienza
Gretl 2020a windows 64bit.
Consider the following output from mle estimation (pay attention to the
Gradient values and the NA std errors):
--- FINAL VALUES:
loglikelihood = -1241.43371416 (steplength = 6.5536e-012)
Parameters: 1.3798 1.0173 0.96596 3.7418e-012
Gradients: 2.4007 6.7772 -5.3557 -0.89559 (norm
Tolerance = 1.81899e-012
Function evaluations: 273
Evaluations of gradient: 39
Model 2: ML, using observations 1-1000
logl = check ? obsll :NA
Standard errors based on Outer Products matrix
estimate std. error z p-value
const 1.37979 NA NA NA
X1 1.01730 NA NA NA
sv 0.965960 NA NA NA
su 3.74177e-012 NA NA NA
Warning: norm of gradient = 1.96088
I have a question, and a suspicion about what the answer might be.
My question is: since the Std errors are based on the Outer Products
matrix, why are they not computed/presented ? Never mind whether this is
a successful estimation attempt -it is not. My question is "mechanical".
I would understand "NA" if I was asking for std errors based on the
inverted Hessian. But where is the problem in computing std errors based
on the gradient?
My suspicion: maybe gretl in all cases dutifully computes the full
variance expression, [G= likelihood gradient], namely Variance = E(GG')
- E(G)E(G)' (using sample means), i.e. it does not a priori treat as
given that E(G)=0. Then, if it so happens that E(G) >> 0 (as is my
case), the full expression may become negative, in which case std errors
are reported as NA since they are the square root of the variance.
Alecos Papadopoulos PhD
Athens University of Economics and Business
At least as best as I can remember, also in older versions of gretl (for
windows 64bit), the "verbose" option in estimation commands like gmm and
mle appeared to be a bit of a loose agent, not producing always the same
info: sometimes all the iterations were shown, sometimes one every five
iterations was shown... things like that.
But in the current version gretl 2020a, the mle --verbose command gives
consistently a compressed picture of each iteration like
1: loglikelihood -1363.99055710 (norm 1.76e+001)
2: loglikelihood -1278.49934122 (step 0.00032, norm 1.21e+001)
3: loglikelihood -1239.79066487 (step 0.00032, norm 1.02e+001)
4: loglikelihood -1237.94568712 (step 0.0016, norm 1.09e+001)
5: loglikelihood -1235.14819783 (step 0.008, norm 1.08e+001)
Gone are the coefficient values per iteration, gone are the gradient
values per iteration... If indeed this is the case, can I ask why? I had
found them to be really helpful when I was dealing with convergence issues.
Alecos Papadopoulos PhD
Athens University of Economics and Business