On Thu, 26 Jan 2006, john w wrote:
3. Pleeeaaassee put AIC and BIC tests for lag selection in VAR and
VECM. For
example in Tests module of VAR and VECM.
I've been thinking about this. First of all, note that you ALREADY get
those statistics in the VAR output. In case you haven't noticed, they're
right at the beginning.
But I assume that what you want is those criteria reported for several lag
orders, so you can choose the "right" lag order. The trouble is, I don't
think you want to check the information criteria AFTER having estimated
the model. The ideal thing to do, in my view, would be to have a separate
command (say, "lagselect") to give you an idea of the order of the VAR you
want to estimate. VECMs wouldn't need a separate procedure, since a VECM
is nothing but a VAR with a peculiar type of restriction on the
parameters.
The most linear way to accomplish this in a script would be something
like:
list VARvars = x y z
n = lagselect(VARvars,BIC)
var n VARvars
having the lagselect command issue some sort of output to let you check
what's happening. Note, by the way, that something like the above can be
achieved by some simple modifications to the script I sent a few days ago.
Now, how would you translate this into a GUI procedure? Maybe you can
select some variables from the main window and then (after right-clicking
or going through the menu) you get the output from lagselect, after which
you decide which lag structure you want and proceed with estimation. Or
would you rather have the option (in the VAR dialog) of automatically
selecting the lag order via AIC or BIC instead of specifying it manually?
Or both things?
If we reach a consensus on
a) whether this is necessary at all
b) if a), if it is urgently needed
c) if a) & b), the "right" way to do it,
then we can get something done.
Riccardo `Jack' Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Economia
Università Politecnica delle Marche
jack(a)dea.unian.it
http://www.econ.univpm.it/lucchetti