Good day,
I am using GRETL 1.8.7 for modeling dynamic econometric models. And
there is one problem that i can't make with it.
I don't know precisely how a model ARMAX is computed.
I use Model->Time Series->ARIMA for this set of data
Dependant variable: i_osn_sred
Independent variable: time
AR Order: 1
Difference: 0
MA order: 0
No seasonal data
Also i include a constant and check the box "Parameter covariance matrix
via Hessian".
The method is "Exact Maximum Likelyhood".
After the operations been completed I have a set of coefficients:
const 332395
phi_1 0.760190
time -7065.29
But i don't know precisely how a final equation looks like? Is this
right or not: y(t) = const + 0.76*y(t-1)-7064.29*t?
According to that equation there is a difference between values y(t)
and Analysis->Display actual, fitted, residuals.
How does this method work (ARMAX))? And Can I make myself a forecast
using this equation?
Thanks in advance.
Alexander