Not all residuals are negative... see how OLS works...
Your model lacks dummies to control outliers on your INF series....
The OLS minimizes the residuals of all observations. If your inf variable explodes on some
points, these will generate a distortion in your estimates and produce a bad model.
That's what is occurring.
Years 1988-1990. There is something in your series right there!
Enviado do meu iPhone
Em 1 de mar de 2017, às 20:16, HEBERT SUAREZ CAHUANA
<hsuarezc(a)unsa.edu.pe> escreveu:
I sent my dataset, I run regresion INF on PBI
My series from this regression are: uhat=INF-yhat
Why all uhat are negatives?
Excuse me, I couldn't speak English very well.
INF PBI uhat yhat
1950 10,290 40920,0 -251,328 261,6187
1951 9,954 44711,0 -250,035 259,9892
1952 6,921 47347,0 -251,935 258,8562
1953 9,087 50085,0 -248,593 257,6794
1954 5,405 52762,0 -251,124 256,5288
1955 4,702 55858,0 -250,496 255,1981
1956 5,474 58484,0 -248,595 254,0694
1957 7,400 62371,0 -244,999 252,3987
1958 7,941 61706,0 -244,744 252,6845
1959 12,702 63653,0 -239,145 251,8476
1960 8,626 69946,0 -240,517 249,1428
1961 6,020 75085,0 -240,914 246,9340
1962 6,618 82620,0 -237,077 243,6953
1963 6,023 86196,0 -236,135 242,1583
1964 9,853 91840,0 -229,879 239,7324
1965 16,363 97003,0 -221,150 237,5132
1966 8,889 104995,0 -225,189 234,0781
1967 11,455 109040,0 -220,884 232,3395
1968 19,117 109206,0 -213,151 232,2682
1969 6,231 113044,0 -224,388 230,6185
1970 5,017 116849,0 -223,966 228,9831
1971 6,807 122213,0 -219,871 226,6775
1972 7,192 126463,0 -217,659 224,8508
1973 9,513 134401,0 -211,925 221,4389
1974 16,877 147017,0 -199,139 216,0163
1975 23,634 153340,0 -189,665 213,2986
1976 33,495 155559,0 -178,850 212,3448
1977 38,042 156102,0 -174,069 212,1114
1978 57,850 151977,0 -156,034 213,8844
1979 67,698 158194,0 -143,515 211,2122
1980 59,161 167596,0 -148,011 207,1711
1981 75,418 176901,0 -127,754 203,1716
1982 64,460 176507,0 -138,881 203,3410
1983 111,149 158136,0 -100,088 211,2372
1984 110,209 163842,0 -98,576 208,7846
1985 163,398 167219,0 -43,935 207,3331
1986 77,921 182981,0 -122,637 200,5584
1987 85,846 200778,0 -107,063 192,9089
1988 666,955 181822,0 465,899 201,0565
1989 3398,272 159436,0 3187,593 210,6784
1990 7481,691 151492,0 7267,598 214,0929
1991 409,528 154854,0 196,880 212,6478
1992 73,529 154017,0 -139,479 213,0076
1993 48,580 162093,0 -160,957 209,5364
1994 23,735 182043,7 -177,227 200,9612
1995 11,131 195536,0 -184,031 195,1620
1996 11,549 201009,3 -181,260 192,8095
1997 8,547 214028,3 -178,667 187,2137
1998 7,255 213190,0 -180,319 187,5740
1999 3,469 216376,7 -182,735 186,2043
2000 3,759 222206,7 -179,940 183,6984
2001 1,975 223579,6 -181,133 183,1084
2002 0,192 235772,9 -177,676 177,8674
2003 2,261 245592,6 -171,386 173,6468
2004 3,662 257769,8 -164,751 168,4128
2005 1,618 273971,2 -159,831 161,4492
2006 2,001 294597,8 -150,582 152,5835
2007 1,779 319693,0 -140,018 141,7971
2008 5,788 348923,0 -123,446 129,2335
2009 2,935 352584,0 -124,725 127,6600
2010 1,530 382380,0 -113,324 114,8531
2011 3,370 407052,0 -100,879 104,2487
2012 3,655 431273,0 -90,183 93,8381
2013 2,806 456365,6 -80,247 83,0528
2014 3,246 467275,8 -75,117 78,3634
2015 3,548 482809,0 -68,139 71,6870
2016 3,599 501621,9 -60,001 63,6008
2017-03-01 9:45 GMT-05:00 HEBERT SUAREZ CAHUANA <hsuarezc(a)unsa.edu.pe>:
> I installed Gretl 2016.d when I run a regression OLS and I generate forecast or save
residuals every residual is lower cero or each residual is negative, it is not posible.
> Whats up in Gretl? Perhaps any problem in program code.
>
> --
> Hebert Suarez Cahuana
> Economics Department
> Saint Augustin University
> Peru
>
>
> "Ninguna nación llegó a la ruina por el libre comercio" Benjamin Franklin
--
Hebert Suarez Cahuana
Secretario del Departamento de Economía
Universidad Nacional de San Agustín
Arequipa-Perú
"Ninguna nación llegó a la ruina por el libre comercio" Benjamin Franklin
<INFLACION_ANUAL_1950-2017.gdt>
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