Allin
Thanks for your attention to this matter. I think that you are very
close to an ideal solution which does not over-complicate the
adjustment process like other implementations. It would be nice if
users read the standard output and error files but I am sure that they
will not. The x12arima console output does summarise errors and
warnings up front. This brings the problems directly to the attention
of the user. The trading day warning is mentioned on page 26 of the
standard output. Sample console output is below.
The default trading day adjustment is a bit more complicated. The td
option that I mentioned in an earlier email includes 6 trading day
variables for each month.
t1 = No of Mondays - No of Sundays
.....
t6 = No of Saturdays - No of Sundays.
This covers the working days example that you mentioned but is more
general and it also includes cases where a particular day or days
might have different volume than others.
########### Sample x12a console output #######################
PS C:\Users\frainj\Downloads\x12arimaTest\x12a> .\x12a teste
X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
Version Number 0.3 Build 188
PSP = 24
Execution began Oct 1, 2010 20.39.35
Reading input spec file from teste.spc
Storing any program output into teste.out
Storing any program error messages into teste.err
WARNING: At least one visually significant trading day peak has been
found in one or more of the estimated spectra.
Execution complete for teste.spc
##################################################
On 29 September 2010 02:01, Allin Cottrell <cottrell(a)wfu.edu> wrote:
On Mon, 27 Sep 2010, John C Frain wrote:
> I have attached a pdf file which, I hope, clarifies my proposals for
> the gretl x12arima interface.
Thanks for the suggestions, John.
> Basically there are three proposals
>
> 1. An amendment to the graphics output of the x12arima interface
> in gretl to improve these graphs when there are missing values.
This one is based on a misunderstanding. Under no circumstances
should you enter -99999 in a gretl data series when you mean "not
available": use the gretl missing value string, "NA", or, when
editing a series via the GUI "spreadsheet", leave the value blank.
Gretl will take care of passing the correct "missing" code to
X-12-ARIMA, and the graphs will be OK.
> 2. A greater emphasis on the .err file to ensure that the user
> is aquainted with possible problems in the seasonal adjustment
> process.
I take your point on this, but I don't think it is a good idea to
pop up a window showing the x12a ".err" file in all cases: this
file is always created by x12a, but in most cases it contains
nothing of any interest. If we can figure out a good test for the
cases where it actually contains a warning, then I agree we should
show its content in those cases.
> 3. The inclusion of a trading day option in the gretl interface
> to x12arima.
OK, I've now figured out what this means. The "trading day effect"
is the effect whereby a given month (or quarter) may contain more
or fewer "trading days" (i.e. weekdays, as opposed to weekends)
from one year to another, depending on how weekends fall in
relation to the calendar. This is obviously of some potential
relevance for seasonal adjustment, particularly for monthly data
(it's likely to wash out for quarterly data), where the series in
question are flows that typically cumulate on weekdays only.
I'll see about adding an option for that.
Allin
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--
John C Frain
Economics Department
Trinity College Dublin
Dublin 2
Ireland
www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/frainj/home.html
mailto:frainj@tcd.ie
mailto:frainj@gmail.com