Hello
By using the filter exponential moving average, you can choose the first EMA
value based on the mean of the first n observations. The number is limited
to 6. Why this limitation ? Sometimes I see people taking the first value
being the mean of half of the time series.
Where do I see any information about the way it is calculated in the Gretl
documentation ?
I have a time series with mean = 351.2917 and the first observation is y1 =
362
Gretl gives me correctly the first forecast being S0 = 351.2917 for y1 which
equals the mean of the whole time series.
The second forecast is given by Gretl as being 354.2625 with alpha = 0.1.
According to me you should get: S1 = 0.1(351.2917) + 0.9(362) = 352.3625
How to find the optimal alpha minimizing the MSE ?
Thank you for your help
Raul