john w schrieb:
Hi guys,
I tried the Engle-Granger cointegration test but I noticed something.
Here is my procedure:
1.I estimated a equatation in cointegration dialogue with the following
variables l_CPI, l_REER, MMR and l_Y using 12 lags and got these results
down.
2. These ADF tests for these variables are wright and the results are
the same if you do ADF tests through main Gretl window using the same
number of lags.
3.In step 5 we have the cointegration results and they are the same if
you estimate a OLS model through main Gretl window.
4.In step 6 we have ADF tests for the residuals. Tests are without a
constant. I tried to check the same test through main Gretl window using
the same specification ie. I saved residuals from OLS regression (which
I done through the main Gretl window) and tested with the ADF test
without a constant. Here are the results:
> From Engle-Granger cointegration:
Step 6: Dickey-Fuller test on residuals
Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, order 12, for uhat
sample size 86
unit-root null hypothesis: a = 1
test without constant
estimated value of (a - 1): -0,333671
test statistic: t = -2,46579
asymptotic p-value 0,4903
> From maing Gretl window:
Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, order 12, for uhat
sample size 86
unit-root null hypothesis: a = 1
test without constant
model: (1 - L)y = (a-1)*y(-1) + ... + e
estimated value of (a - 1): -0,333671
test statistic: t = -2,46579
asymptotic p-value 0,01324
Test statistics and estimated values, sample size are the same, but
p-values are different?
> From the first test ie. E-G one could conclude that there is no
cointegration and from the second (from OLS saved residuals) that there
is a cointegration relationship.
Why is that?
Did I make same mistaque in comparing?
Yes, EG has a different distribution than ADF. gretl is right.
cheers,
Sven