Hello,
I'm writing a master thesis about volatility forecasting using GARCH and
GJR models (with Normal, stud-t and GED distributions). I need to
prepare out-of-sample forecasting for that models. Thus, I've tried to
prepare scripts using gig package.
I've got the following script for GARCH (1,1) with GED distribution:
include gig.gfn
open file.gdt
model = gig_setup(RETURN,1,const)
gig_set_dist(&model, 2)
gig_estimate(&model)
#gig_plot(&emodel)
#gig_dplot(&emodel)
series e = $uhat
series h = $h
dataset addobs 1
a0 = $coeff[2]
a1 = $coeff[3]
b1 = $coeff[4]
series hfc = h
# set future errors to their expectation
e = misszero(e)
# forecast the variance
hfc = a0 + a1 * e(-1)^2 + b1 * hfc(-1)
smpl 165 ;
print e h hfc --byobs
However, the commands series e = $uhat and series h = $h don't work. The
information is that: "The statistic you requested is not available"
I'll be really grateful if you can write me how to get 'uhat' and 'h'
series in that case. Or maybe it is some another way for preparing
out-of-sample forecasting for GARCH and GJR models.
Best regards,
Marta