Am 16.05.2020 um 06:59 schrieb Burak Korkusuz:
Sorry, my fault, thanks for responding. I am adding my data to the
email. I have 5-minute realised variance data for FTSE.
Basically, I am trying to do rolling windows forecasting using the
HAR-RV model (in time series). I will have the initial sample;
observation 24-336 (I labelled observation date as numbers).
Observations between 337-437 will be the out-of-sample. First, I want
to estimate HAR model with 24-336 obs. and then forecast
one-step-ahead forecast [337]. Next, estimate HAR with 25-337 obs. and
then forecast [338]. Estimate with 26-338 and then forecast [339] ...
I am not sure I am doing right with my codes and in my case rolling
windows forecasting is; one-step-ahead forecasted values are generated
by each sliding different HAR model (i.e. 24-336, 25-337, 26-338 ...).
I am doing that with HAR-RV model and later on, I will add to the
model as an exogenous variable –VIX, EPU, Industrial production etc.–
and compare forecasting performance.
OK, for convenience let me paste your code from the attached mycode.inp
here again:
<hansl>
set verbose off
loop i=1..100 -q
smpl 23+i 335+i
ols RV5_FTSE const RV5_FTSE(-1) HARWEEK HARMONTH
fcast 336+i 336+i 1 forecasted --recursive
endloop
</hansl>
Basically I'd say this looks fine. However, two or three comments:
1) At first glance it appears that HARWEEK and HARMONTH are
contemporaneous variables. If that's true, it's not a real forecasting
equation. But perhaps in the background those variables actually refer
to the past.
2) The '--recursive' option is redundant here, since you're only
specifying a single obs to be forecast -- apart from the fact that you
don't want a recursively estimated model (where the starting obs of the
estimation window is fixed).
cheers
sven