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Question
So what about my last question? Are IRF confidence intervals based on
bootstrapping valid even if the VECM has non-normal residuals?
Answer
The bootstrap was developed to avoid Monte Carlo simulations using
random draws from a preset distribution (say Normal). The bootstrap will
proxy the empirical distribution of your residuals given that the
residuals are "sufficiently" noisy (it doesn't matter if they test
non-normal!)
By noisy, I mean no heteroscedasticity or autocorrelation issues. There
is a huge literature for heteroscedasticity issues (Wild bootstrap) and
I guess (i am not an expert) block bootstrap that divides your data into
blocks to preserve the original time series properties within a block
(when dependence is an issue).
Back to your question, it seems it has to do with what you mean
"non-normal" residuals? My guess is a few outliers or asymmetry? So
bootstrap is valid.
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Question d.o.f correction
Regarding d.o.f corrections when calculating IRFs in gretl
Using Allin's example
open data9-7
var 4 UNEMP PRIME
For the UNEMP equation the Sum squared resid=3.613493 so that
sqrt(3.613493/60)=0.24540759
Notice that this is the one standard error shock in UNEMP and 60 is the
original sample size of T=64 obs minus p=4 for the lags (say T-p).
In other commercial software this is baptized : no df correction.
If you prefer df correction multiply IRFs with 60/(60-1-8) where 1+8
corresponds to the parameters number in one VAR equation
sqrt(3.613493/(60-9))=0.2661819
Now I think the SVAR addon uses the correction
sqrt(3.613493/(64-1-8))=0.25631986 that is the original sample size T
minus the number of parameters in the UNEMP equation
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