Good afternoon.
I am developing a causal econometric model according to the concept of аuthenticity
modeling
Model is as follows:
Y(t)=SUM[a0*Y(t-s)] + SUM[a6*X6,(t-s)] + SUM[a23*X23,(t-s)]
(1->4) (0->2) (0->1)
The right side of this equation has lag dependent varibles, lag independent variables and
independent variables.
To estimate parameters I use the exact method of likelyhood.
But the residuals are not normally distributed.
May I use this method to estimate the parameters (or I should use another methods)?
If the residuals are not normal, will be this model suitable for forecasting?
Thanks in advance
Alexander