Dear List,
Does anyone have a script for computing Bayesian-based confidence intervals for the
impulse responses from a VAR? If not, are there plans to implement this in GRETL
natively?
Thanks,
Tom Volscho
Thomas W. Volscho
Assistant Professor of Sociology
Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social Work
City University of New York-College of Staten Island
2800 Victory Blvd., Bldg. 4S, Room 210
Staten Island, NY 10314
phone: 718-982-3774
email: thomas.volscho(a)csi.cuny.edu
web:
http://scholar.library.csi.cuny.edu/~volschot
________________________________________
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Today's Topics:
1. gretl batch time series plot with forecast and confidence
interval (was Re: Replay of saved session does not work)
(Marco Dieckhoff)
2. Re: gretl batch time series plot with forecast and confidence
interval (was Re: Replay of saved session does not work)
(Allin Cottrell)
3. Re: concerning the commands for double bounded DC in
contingent valuation (Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti)
4. Re: concerning the commands for double bounded DC in
contingent valuation (Allin Cottrell)
5. Re: gretl batch time series plot with forecast and confidence
interval (was Re: Replay of saved session does not work)
(Allin Cottrell)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Message: 1
Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:59:24 +0200
From: Marco Dieckhoff <dieck(a)gmx.de>
Subject: [Gretl-users] gretl batch time series plot with forecast and
confidence interval (was Re: Replay of saved session does not work)
To: Gretl list <gretl-users(a)lists.wfu.edu>
Message-ID: <4ADDFA7C.4010307(a)gmx.de>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Allin Cottrell schrieb:
On Mon, 19 Oct 2009, Allin Cottrell wrote:
> I'll add a fix shortly, to ensure that when observations are
> added implicitly in the context of forecasting, this gets
> recorded in the command log.
That's now done, in CVS and the Windows snapshot.
Thanks, worked that out.
I'm getting there step by step, just one missing :)
My gretl batch command set:
open TempData1.csv
setobs 24 1:01 --time-series
arima 1 0 1 ; 2 1 0
dataset addobs 6
fcasterr 2:01 2:06
works good so far.
Now I wanted to procure gnuplot a graph like Figure 9.13 on page 135 of
http://www.learneconometrics.com/gretl/ebook.pdf
Time series plot with forecast and confidence interval.
I tried "fcasterr 2:01 2:06 --plot" but gretl -b script does nothing, I
can't find any PLT or other files.
? fcasterr 2:01 2:06 --plot
For 95% confidence intervals, z(.025) = 1.96
Obs temp prediction std. error 95% confidence interval
2:01 37.7295 0.718507 36.3212 - 39.1378
.. 2:06 36.4813 1.86236 32.8311 - 40.1316
Done
gnuplot itself works:
? gnuplot temp hour --with-lines --time-series
wrote /home/user/gretl/gpttmp01.plt
Done
I look through the documentation, but I can't find how to procure that
special gnuplot using gretl command line utility with linux.
Can anyone help me?
Thanks in advance,
Marco
------------------------------
Message: 2
Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:32:18 -0400 (EDT)
From: Allin Cottrell <cottrell(a)wfu.edu>
Subject: Re: [Gretl-users] gretl batch time series plot with forecast
and confidence interval (was Re: Replay of saved session does not
work)
To: Gretl list <gretl-users(a)lists.wfu.edu>
Message-ID: <Pine.A41.4.58.0910201529570.2736420(a)f1n11.sp2net.wfu.edu>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII
On Tue, 20 Oct 2009, Marco Dieckhoff wrote:
My gretl batch command set:
open TempData1.csv
setobs 24 1:01 --time-series
arima 1 0 1 ; 2 1 0
dataset addobs 6
fcasterr 2:01 2:06
works good so far.
Now I wanted to procure gnuplot a graph like Figure 9.13 on page 135 of
http://www.learneconometrics.com/gretl/ebook.pdf
Time series plot with forecast and confidence interval.
I tried "fcasterr 2:01 2:06 --plot" but gretl -b script does
nothing...
It seems that the --plot option for fcasterr got dropped when we
merged "fcasterr" with "fcast" in gretl 1.7.4. I'll see about
reinstating it, since it seems like a useful thing to have.
Allin Cottrell
------------------------------
Message: 3
Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:55:56 +0200 (CEST)
From: "Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti" <r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it>
Subject: Re: [Gretl-users] concerning the commands for double bounded
DC in contingent valuation
To: Gretl list <gretl-users(a)lists.wfu.edu>
Message-ID: <alpine.DEB.2.00.0910202348380.16885(a)ec-4.econ.univpm.it>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-15"
On Mon, 19 Oct 2009, Allin Cottrell wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Oct 2009, Dorian Litvine wrote:
>
>> My name is Dorian, I'm trying to estimate the data of a double
>> bounded dichotomous choice (contingent valuation) thanks to a
>> maximum likelihood estimation with a linear specification...
When I first responded to this I was pretty much totally
unfamiliar with double-bounded contingent valuation. I've now
read a few paragraphs on the topic, so here are some further
thoughts -- now based on not-quite-total ignorance ;-). I'm
writing this up for the record in case it's of use to Dorian and
others who might want to use gretl for such a purpose.
If I'm not grossly mistaken, the model Allin is describing is exactly the
one that you can estimate via interval regression (the intreg command).
Dorian's script seems to use a slightly different model, since he uses
a logistic distribution instead of a normal, but that's not important.
In a double-bound valuation survey, the two bids enable to place the
respondents' willingness to pay inside an interval, which becomes your
"dependent variable", so to speak. I'm attaching an example script that
generates artificial data and should be (hopefully) self-explanatory.
Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Economia
Universit? Politecnica delle Marche
r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it
http://www.econ.univpm.it/lucchetti