Am 14.01.2021 um 02:45 schrieb Reynaldo Senra:
Dear professors Sven and Jack,
Does the MG estimation have the same issue of probably choosing a model
with local maximum log-likelihood?
The MG estimator as such is just a simple average of OLS regressions, so
there cannot be any numerical problems, nothing needs to be maximized
iteratively.
However, we were talking only of using the MG values to provide
different initial parameter guesses for the PMG routine. The local
maximum problem can happen for any way of choosing initial values, in
principle. That's why we are thinking about providing an option to
choose between different ways of initialization.
Is there a chance of obtaining a Hausman test comparing the pmg long run
estimates with the ones corresponding to a MG where the log-likelihood
is local maximum (and not global)?
First, as explained above, the MG itself can never be stuck at a local
max. So that's the good news. But ML (= max-likelihood!) presupposes
that you are able to find the global max, otherwise it's not a
well-defined construct. So the short answer is no.
In practice, however, whether or not the PMG routine did find the global
max is something we can never know for sure. This is a general problem
of numerical maximization procedures in all software, but of course some
algorithms are better than others.
In practice, we just take the converged values and hope they are really
the best.
cheers
sven