On Wed, 9 Jul 2014, henrique.andrade(a)bb.com.br wrote:
Dear Gretl Community,
I would like to know how to reproduce an automatic X-12-ARIMA specification
inside Gretl. I'll try to explain better...
<hansl>
open fedstl.bin
data paynsa
smpl 2000:01
</hansl>
Using the GUI facilities to X-12-ARIMA (Menu -> Variable -> X-12-ARIMA
Analysis) I get the following specification:
"Final automatic model choice : (0 2 1)(0 1 1)"
And I get the following model:
<model>
Estimation converged in 10 ARMA iterations, 31 function evaluations.
ARIMA Model: (0 2 1)(0 1 1)
Nonseasonal differences: 2
Seasonal differences: 1
Standard
Parameter Estimate Errors
-----------------------------------------------------
Nonseasonal MA
Lag 1 0.4834 0.06713
Seasonal MA
Lag 12 0.7977 0.05225
</model>
So I use it with the "arima" command:
<hansl>
arima 0 2 1 ; 0 1 1 ; paynsa --nc --x-12-arima
</hansl>
This gives me the following result:
<model>
Modelo 3: ARIMA, usando as observações 2000:01-2014:04 (T = 172)
Estimado usando X-12-ARIMA (Máxima verossimilhança exata)
Variável dependente: (1-L)^2(1-Ls) paynsa
coeficiente erro padrão z p-valor
----------------------------------------------------------
theta_1 -0,545388 0,0619664 -8,801 1,35e-018 ***
Theta_1 -0,789758 0,0506616 -15,59 8,66e-055 ***
</model>
How can I exactly reproduce the model estimated by the X-12-ARIMA procedure?
Note that the "auto" x12a output includes the assessment that the log
transformation gives a better fit. So:
<hansl>
series y = log(paynsa)
arima 0 2 1 ; 0 1 1 ; y --nc --x-12-arima
</hansl>
will replicate the results.
Allin Cottrell