On Fri, 13 Dec 2019, bjr.newmail(a)gmail.com wrote:
Trying to figure out the projection/fitted equation for a GRETL ARMAX
estimation with an AR(2) Lag (with complex roots) using the ML estimator
An example below
const 5.73988 0.0368359 155.8 0.0000 ***
phi_1 0.439231 0.183336 2.396 0.0166 **
phi_2 −0.775841 0.147472 −5.261 1.43e-07 ***
X1 0.665307 0.173553 3.833 0.0001 ***
X2 −0.199019 0.0600511 −3.314 0.0009 ***
X3 −0.151153 0.0637270 −2.372 0.0177 **
Does gretl apply the lag operator to the dependent variable and estimate
Yt= c + p1Yt-1+p2Yt-2 +ΣbX +et or estimate Yt=c+ΣbX +ut in which Ut
incorporates the AR2 structure (as in AR General Cochrane Orcutt
estimation). In other words what is the final form of the equation to
generate the fitted or future values(at least where past residuals would
still apply) ?
This is tricky. The short answer is: it depends whether you're estimating
via conditional ML or full ML. Conditional ML uses the first equation you
mention, full ML the second one.
A full explanation is in the User's Guide, section 28.2.
-------------------------------------------------------
Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali (DiSES)
Università Politecnica delle Marche
(formerly known as Università di Ancona)
r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it
http://www2.econ.univpm.it/servizi/hpp/lucchetti
-------------------------------------------------------