On Sat, 12 Mar 2011, Henrique Andrade wrote:
Em 12 de mar�o de 2011 Allin escreveu:
On Sat, 12 Mar 2011, Henrique Andrade wrote:
>
> > *Y(t) = X(t-1) + e1(t); if z(t-d)>=tau*
> > *Y(t) = X(t-1) + e2(t); if z(t-d)<tau*
>
> If it's a TVAR I _think_ it should look more like
>
> Y_t = D1 + B1(L)Y_t + I_t*(D2 + B2(L)Y_t) + U_t
>
> where I_t = 1 if z(t-d) >= tau, otherwise 0.
>
Dear Allin, I need that the errors (and variances) differ in each regime:
Y_t = D1 + B1(L)Y_t + U1_t, if z(t-d) >= tau
Y_t = D2 + B2(L)Y_t + U2_t, otherwise
It seems to me that the error variances will automatically differ
across the two regimes in the version I constructed. But I'm not
experienced with TVARs so maybe I'm missing something.
So I think I need to use the threshold values to build two data
segments. To do this I'm doing something close to your script:
* <script>*
*series* z = normal()
*scalar* tau = 1.5
*series* r1 = z(-1) >= tau
*series* r2 = 1-r1
*loop foreach* i Y
*series* r1$i = zeromiss(r1 * $i)
*series* r2$i = zeromiss(r2 * $i)
*endloop*
*
list regime1 = r1PAU r1IAU r1E
list regime2 = r2PAU r2IAU r2E
*
*</scrip>*
Now I just need to estimate two separate VARs [...]
It seems to me that estimating "two separate VARs" and estimating
one VAR with certain variables included conditionally (and
otherwise set to zero) amount to the same thing -- except, of
course, that in the version I gave, the D2 and B2 coefficients
must be interpreted as the (regime 2 minus regime 1) effect.
But we have missing observations... How can we handle this?
I have no idea how this could work, in a time-series model with
lags. That's why I went for the combined version.
Finally, I would like to make one more question. Looking at your
original code, we have, in the last line, this expression: var
1 Y ; r2*. What the symbol "*" (in r2*) means?
OK, that's easy. The symbol "*" here is a "wildcard", so that
"r2*" denotes all series whose names start with "r2".
Allin