Hi all cointegration aficionados,
this is the attempt to summarize and clarify some confusion that seems
to exist about the meaning of the choices for deterministics in a VECM
(including the Johansen test setup) in gretl and other software, related
or unrelated. This is going to be a bit long, but hopefully clear. Feel
free to correct me about the situation in R further down.
First, gretl's 'vecm' and 'coint2' commands use the widely known
"five
cases", same as in most other software including for example Eviews and
I think also Stata:
['coint2' might get an alias name soon, but the workings will stay the
same]
1/nc: no constant at all - 2/rc: restricted constant (only in the EC
term) - 3/uc: unrestricted constant (to model a trend component in the
data but not in the EC term) - 4/crt: unrestr.const plus a trend term
restricted to the EC term - 5/ct: both unrestr.const and unrestr.trend.
Cases 2,3,4 are by far the most relevant for applications.
Second, comparison with R/urca: I'm not an expert for this R package,
but it became clear recently that its labels have a different meaning,
in my view a little misleading. Its "no constant" case is _not_ case 1.
Instead it seems to mean, "let's not put a constant specifically into
the EC term (but of course we'll need one in the overall system)". So
"no constant" in R/urca apparently corresponds to case 3.
[The question of the inference in the rank test is then a little more
complicated and we had a thread about that recently, which I won't
repeat here.]
"Constant" in R/urca seems to be case 2, and "trend" would be case 4.
Thirdly, I have (together with original code author Andreas Noack
Jensen) a function package "coint2rec" for gretl with which you can do
stability analysis of the cointegration structure in a VECM. Only the
cases 'nc','rc,' and 'crt' are implemented there, so cases 1,2,4
in the
numbering above. There is a reason for this coming from the statistical
theory, namely that these setups yield so-called "similar" tests. In
particular, you cannot directly choose the popular case 3/uc. What might
be confusing is that in coint2rec the codes are also numbered
consecutively from one to three, but the last of those cases is not
number 3 (uc) in the "usual" terminology. (Instead, I repeat, it is case
4/crt.)
Follow-up question: What do you do if your model is 3/uc but you want to
use coint2rec? Well, you would have to move temporarily to the more
general model case 4/crt. In theory, you would estimate the
cointegration rank with case 4/crt, conduct the stability analysis with
coint2rec with case 4/crt (where it has code number 3), and if it's
stable then test (with gretl) whether you can exclude the trend from
the EC term. [In practice, things usually do not go so smoothly, but
that's our common problem as econometricians...]
Finally, a note about another related package from Andreas and me,
"johansensmall" for small-sample inference on the rank test. There you
have the standard cases 1 to 4 available, but not the rare case 5. (And
in case you want the Bartlett correction case 3/uc is also not there,
for the same theoretical reason as in coint2rec.)
HTH
Sven
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Am 26.02.19 um 09:14 schrieb Sven Schreiber:
Hi all cointegration aficionados,
this is the attempt to summarize and clarify some confusion that seems
to exist about the meaning of the choices for deterministics in a VECM
(including the Johansen test setup) in gretl and other software, related
or unrelated. This is going to be a bit long, but hopefully clear. Feel
free to correct me about the situation in R further down.
Thank you for this clarification, Sven! This is very helpful.
Best,
Artur