Perhaps there is some justification in model reduction as implemented in
David Hendry's Pc-gets or in the Grocer package in Scilab. This does use a
form of model reduction but it is very restricted. Otherwise what are the
benefits of systems of stepwise regression. If you do arrive a a somewhat
sensible looking answer you can make no structural econometric inference.
How do you overcome the problems mentioned by Clive Nicolas. You then
need a completely new and independent data set to make statistical
inferences on the new theory. Perhaps you are simply interested in data
reduction.
Can you give me one good example in which a stepwise regression program
produces results that are not subject to the objections mentioned by
Clive. OLS, VARS etc may be abused by some but such routines are the basis
of much good work. Stepwise regression is not.
John C Frain
3 Aranleigh Park
Rathfarnham
Dublin 14
Ireland
mailto:frainj@tcd.ie
mailto:frainj@gmail.com
On Fri, 15 Jun 2018 at 22:36, Periklis Gogas <perrygogas(a)gmail.com> wrote:
I disagree 95%.
If we start taking out all the functions, methodologies, menu items that
can be miss-used then we are left only with a spreadsheet...
OLS can be misused, VARs, R2, p-values and so on. Everything can be
misused.
Even trying to teach students the disadvantages of these methods it is
worth the while.
PG
*Periklis Gogas
<
http://www.econ.duth.gr/personel/dep/gkogkas/index.en.shtml>*
Associate Professor
of Economic Analysis and International Economics
Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace
Associate Editor - Journal of Economic Asymmetries
<
https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/>
Euro Area Business Cycle Network - Fellow
<
http://www.eabcn.org/person/periklis-gogas>
The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis - Fellow
<
http://www.rcfea.org/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,1/>
The Society for Economic Measurement - Member
<
http://sem.society.cmu.edu/home.html>
Institute for Nonlinear Dynamical Inference (INDI) - Charter Fellow
<
http://icemr.ru/institute-for-nonlinear-dynamical-inference/>
Σύγχρονοι Ελληνικοί Μύθοι
<
http://www.public.gr/product/syghronoi-ellinikoi-mythoi/prod9040056pp/?so...
- το νέο μου βιβλίο
On Fri, Jun 15, 2018 at 11:55 PM Sven Schreiber <svetosch(a)gmx.net> wrote:
> Am 15.06.2018 um 21:57 schrieb Clive Nicholas:
>
> I agree with John 150%:stepwise regression models (and their ilk) are a
> poor substitute for proper thinking about model specification and simply
> shouldn't be used, for _anything_!
>
>
> I agree maybe about 95% :-)
>
> The statistical points you remind us of are of course valid. Still that
> doesn't mean that a formalized model specification search is never to be
> used. The question is indeed how to communicate that problem in a software
> package (including the existing omit --auto option). Perhaps the result of
> such a procedure should be presented wihtout standard errors or something
> like that. An easier solution would probably be to include a warning
> message.
>
> BTW, the Lasso and other modern tools haven't been mentioned yet. Indeed
> I wouldn't currently recommend to try to reinvent the wheel in hansl. It is
> relatively easy to wrap the R packages glmnet and sparsenet in a gretl
> function.
>
> cheers,
> sven
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