All,
I'm estimating an ARMA(2,2) model from generated data using gretl's
exact likelihood. When I forecast 10 periods out from the end of the
sample, the first 2 forecast standard errors are as I would expect.
However, after this the standard error of the prediction is larger
than the standard error of my series. I was under the impression that
this cannot be. Surely, I'm misunderstanding something? The standard
error does approach some limit, though I'm not sure what. Does someone
have a reference for this? I didn't see anything in the gretl user
guide.
The series is here, if someone wants to replicate.
http://pastebin.com/qr5FCp2K
Thanks,
Skipper