[Gretl-users] Re: Hobby project: Forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases

Am 03.03.2020 um 20:50 schrieb Artur Tarassow: > let me make some advertisement for a hobby project I've realized last > weekend. The John Hopkins University publishes public data on world-wide > contagion of the virus. So I thought "Let's make use of it!" Hi Artur, interesting idea. Let's just not forget the real suffering involved in the background. (I know you didn't, but it may be worth making it explicit when using words like "hobby" and so on.)

> I've build a small job which automatically downloads a csv (scheduled > via a cron job) and transforms data into a panel. Next, the job computes > 7-days ahead forecasts based on latest available daily data for various > country-province combination. Freshly compiled plots are uploaded to > github. The underlying model is of the simple ARIMA type -- nothing > fancy as it's mainly for for illustration on how to use gretl for such a > task. Or you could use your "naive" forecasting package, in particular the model combination. Probably hard to beat!