Hi
 
I have sent an e-mail to the mailing list, but I haven't got so much
success, I am going to rewrite the question to make it more understandable
(I am not a native English speaker)
 
Basically, I have a dynamic prediction and I do not know why the standard
error grows up (see below), does anybody have the formula or any paper where
I can look into, thanks
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For 95% confidence intervals, t(4, 0.025) = 2.776
 
     Obs      Premium    prediction    std. error        95% interval
 
    2004        302.00       301.15
    2005        337.00       340.66
    2006        375.00       372.89
    2007                     407.25        2.792       399.50 -   415.00
    2008                     442.78        2.846       434.88 -   450.68
    2009                     474.53        2.848       466.63 -   482.44
    2010                     508.07        2.848       500.16 -   515.97
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The model is AR(1) with intercept, Prais-Winsten transformation
(Cochrane-Orcutt).
 
Thank you very much, any help would be great.
 
Kind regards