El vie, 05-03-2010 a las 10:18 +0100, Jaroslaw Gramacki escribió:
Suppose we have a Time series Data in gretl generated as a simple
TS:
z_t = p * z_{t-1} + u_t; -1 < p < 1
x_t = a + b * t + z_t;
Two scenarios:
1. We build an OLS model (no lags, static model)
2. We build Time series (say Cochrane-Orcutt) model (no lags, static model)
In scenario 1: If we make Graphs -> Fitted, actual plot -> Against time, we obtain
"a
normal" regression line.
In scenario 2: If we make Graphs -> Fitted, actual plot -> Against time, we obtain
in
fact a static 1-step ahead forecast plot.
I understand the difference beetwen time series and cross-sectional data but why two
different plots are obtained via exactly the same sounded menus?
Regards,
Jaroslaw Gramacki
As you say, in the Cochrane-Orcutt case, you are obtaining the 1-step
ahead forecasts. I think this is an small bug. If the user wants this
type of forecasts, he/she may obtain them trough the
option /Analysis/forecasts in the model output menu.
--
Ignacio Diaz-Emparanza
DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA III (ECONOMETRÍA Y ESTADÍSTICA)
UPV/EHU
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