Hi,
I've been running the ADF test for 2 variables, however when I view the regression
results of the ADF test, it appears to perform it differently for each variable. The
outputs for each variable are pasted below. The first one tests the differenced u variable
against u_1 and d_u_1 (plus seasonal dummies), which you would expect for the test.
However for s, it leaves out the d_s_1 element. I've found this happening with a
number of other variables in different models.
Is this still performing a correct ADF test or should I be doing something differently?
Any information you could offer would be hugely appreciated
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for u
including one lag of (1-L)u (max was 1)
sample size 93
unit-root null hypothesis: a = 1
test with constant plus seasonal dummies
model: (1-L)y = b0 + (a-1)*y(-1) + ... + e
1st-order autocorrelation coeff. for e: -0.023
estimated value of (a - 1): -0.121213
test statistic: tau_c(1) = -1.98793
asymptotic p-value 0.2924
Augmented Dickey-Fuller regression
OLS, using observations 1980:03-1987:11 (T = 93)
Dependent variable: d_u
coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value
---------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0512208 0.00498901 10.27 3.37e-016 ***
u_1 -0.121213 0.0609744 -1.988 0.2924
d_u_1 -0.290699 0.106952 -2.718 0.0081 ***
dm1 -0.0616078 0.00781483 -7.883 1.47e-011 ***
dm2 -0.0914671 0.00835130 -10.95 1.64e-017 ***
dm3 -0.0703498 0.00808719 -8.699 3.77e-013 ***
dm4 -0.0598935 0.00699811 -8.559 7.09e-013 ***
dm5 -0.0549386 0.00698092 -7.870 1.56e-011 ***
dm6 -0.0216324 0.00692478 -3.124 0.0025 ***
dm7 -0.0375700 0.00692756 -5.423 6.20e-07 ***
dm8 -0.0733871 0.00660600 -11.11 8.23e-018 ***
dm9 -0.0622728 0.00756849 -8.228 3.13e-012 ***
dm10 -0.0360162 0.00685525 -5.254 1.23e-06 ***
dm11 -0.0341986 0.00663768 -5.152 1.85e-06 ***
AIC: -536.222 BIC: -500.766 HQC: -521.906
Dickey-Fuller test for s
sample size 95
unit-root null hypothesis: a = 1
test with constant plus seasonal dummies
model: (1-L)y = b0 + (a-1)*y(-1) + e
1st-order autocorrelation coeff. for e: -0.008
estimated value of (a - 1): -1.26693
test statistic: tau_c(1) = -11.9177
p-value 0.002828
Dickey-Fuller regression
OLS, using observations 1980:02-1987:12 (T = 95)
Dependent variable: d_s
coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value
---------------------------------------------------------
const 0.378700 0.0383446 9.876 1.31e-015 ***
s_1 -1.26693 0.106307 -11.92 0.0028 ***
dm1 -0.424225 0.0774678 -5.476 4.64e-07 ***
dm2 -0.462089 0.0504077 -9.167 3.35e-014 ***
dm3 -0.381479 0.0512581 -7.442 8.79e-011 ***
dm4 -0.338558 0.0526217 -6.434 7.84e-09 ***
dm5 -0.113624 0.0535687 -2.121 0.0369 **
dm6 -0.182175 0.0651366 -2.797 0.0064 ***
dm7 -0.439919 0.0575612 -7.643 3.55e-011 ***
dm8 -0.432768 0.0505549 -8.560 5.39e-013 ***
dm9 -0.500302 0.0516082 -9.694 3.01e-015 ***
dm10 -0.543976 0.0504374 -10.79 2.14e-017 ***
dm11 -0.547869 0.0503964 -10.87 1.45e-017 ***
AIC: -154.374 BIC: -121.173 HQC: -140.958
Thanks
Philip Braithwaite
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