Em 12 de março de 2011 Allin escreveu:
On Sat, 12 Mar 2011, Henrique Andrade wrote:
> *Y(t) = X(t-1) + e1(t); if z(t-d)>=tau*
> *Y(t) = X(t-1) + e2(t); if z(t-d)<tau*
If it's a TVAR I _think_ it should look more like
Y_t = D1 + B1(L)Y_t + I_t*(D2 + B2(L)Y_t) + U_t
where I_t = 1 if z(t-d) >= tau, otherwise 0.
Dear Allin, I need that the errors (and variances) differ in each regime:
Y_t = D1 + B1(L)Y_t + U1_t, if z(t-d) >= tau
Y_t = D2 + B2(L)Y_t + U2_t, otherwise
So I think I need to use the threshold values to build two data segments. To
do this I'm doing something close to your script:
* <script>*
*series* z = normal()
*scalar* tau = 1.5
*series* r1 = z(-1) >= tau
*series* r2 = 1-r1
*loop foreach* i Y
*series* r1$i = zeromiss(r1 * $i)
*series* r2$i = zeromiss(r2 * $i)
*endloop*
*
list regime1 = r1PAU r1IAU r1E
list regime2 = r2PAU r2IAU r2E
*
*</scrip>*
Now I just need to estimate two separate VARs:
*<script>*
* "VAR regime 1"* <- *var* 1 regime1
* "VAR regime 2" <- var 1 regime2*
*
</scrip>
*
But we have missing observations... How can we handle this?
Finally, I would like to make one more question. Looking at your original
code, we have, in the last line, this expression: *var 1 Y ; r2**. What the
symbol "*" (in r2*) means?
Best regards,
--
*Henrique C. de Andrade*
Doutorando em Economia Aplicada
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
www.ufrgs.br/ppge