Re: [Gretl-users] Time series prediction

Hi again, Am I missing something? In my case the data is not actually interpolated. I doesn't give me the "predicted" values for 55 and 56. It only shows the fitted values for the data I provided, but not the data I'm missing. Here is my output: For 95% confidence intervals, t(7, 0,025) = 2,365 datavalues prediction std. error 95% interval 1 215,00 24,31 121,471 -262,93 - 311,54 2 220,00 48,61 122,030 -239,94 - 337,17 3 200,00 72,92 122,957 -217,83 - 363,66 4 195,00 97,22 124,243 -196,56 - 391,01 5 190,00 170,14 130,132 -137,58 - 477,85 6 185,00 194,44 132,723 -119,40 - 508,29 7 170,00 218,75 135,600 -101,89 - 539,39 8 150,00 243,06 138,744 -85,02 - 571,13 Forecast evaluation statistics Mean Error 56,944 Mean Squared Error 12871 Root Mean Squared Error 113,45 Mean Absolute Error 94,757 Mean Percentage Error 24,365 Mean Absolute Percentage Error 48,319 Theil's U 7,1394 Bias proportion, UM 0,25193 Regression proportion, UR 0,74351 Disturbance proportion, UD 0,0045524 As you can see, the forecast only shows the fitted values (8 value). It should be 10 values with the 1955 and 1956 values. Note the my current OLS estimation is very poor (see the bad prediction values), but that doesn't matter now. Peter On 2014/05/18 12:24 PM, Narandra Dashora wrote: Peter I used GRETL software . First I created the sheet on Excel and imported the file on GRETL. Then I used the window Ordinary least Square and got the regression results. The again I used OLS and click Forecasts . The results have been the prediction for 1955-56. . Please feel free to communicate . I am from India therefore there may be time lag in communication On Sun, May 18, 2014 at 11:20 AM, Huffelpuff <huffelpuff420(a)gmail.com&gt;wrote: > Hi, > > Thanks for this Narandra. I'm still a bit confused how you actually did > the interpolation. > > This is what I've done: > 1. Create a dataset with 8 entries. The dataset has a variable with the > indexes (1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10) and a second variable that holds the > stock prices. > 2. I then estimate a model (for instance AR(1) or ARIMA) and used the > stock prices as dependent variable and the indexes as the regressor. > 3. Once estimated, I tried to forecast the values, but it only calculates > the values for the given indexes, but not for index 5 and 6. > > How exactly did you get the interpolated values? Directly via the GUI or > with a hansl script? > > Peter > > > > > > On 2014/05/17 04:42 PM, Narandra Dashora wrote: > > Give time series a numerical value such as 1 for 1950 and so on , But > Give 1956 the value 7 . This will give you regression equation > The put in the value of X. The solution of your problem may be by using > Time Stock 1 215 2 220 3 200 4 195 7 190 8 185 9 170 10 150 > > > > _______________________________________________ > Gretl-users mailing listGretl-users@lists.wfu.eduhttp://lists.wfu.edu/mailman/listinfo/gretl-users > > > > _______________________________________________ > Gretl-users mailing list > Gretl-users(a)lists.wfu.edu > http://lists.wfu.edu/mailman/listinfo/gretl-users > _______________________________________________ Gretl-users mailing listGretl-users@lists.wfu.eduhttp://lists.wfu.edu/mailman/listinfo/gretl-users _______________________________________________ Gretl-users mailing list Gretl-users(a)lists.wfu.edu http://lists.wfu.edu/mailman/listinfo/gretl-users