Am 26.07.2024 um 14:09 schrieb Sven Schreiber:
I think the choice of Bartlett standard errors for the correlogram in
the GUI is relatively recent (not sure), while the corresponding
--bartlett option for the corrgm command has been there for a long time.
In any case, I was made aware of the special null hypothesis
underlying the Bartlett variant: namely that for the interval at lag k
the null hypothesis is an MA(k-1). This is not a problem (of course),
but the standard confidence intervals come from white noise as the
null hypothesis. So the choice of Bartlett standard errors in this
case isn't just some robustification or small-sample thing (as opposed
to a Bartlett correction in other contexts, for example), but involves
a different view.
So far so good, but I haven't found any mention of what the Bartlett
errors actually mean. I have checked the GUI help text (for
"Correlogram"), the documentation of the corrgm command, and the user
guide. Actually, I was a bit surprised that the user guide and
specifically the univariate time series chapter does not mention the
ACF/PACF/correlogram at all. (Searching for "corrgm" or "ACF"
doesn't
show anything, and "correlogram" only shows up in a different context
as cross-correlogram.) This is not a criticism, but just an
observation -- maybe there are places I have overlooked.
I think wherever these Bartlett standard errors are mentioned as an
option, the different null hypothesis should be made explicit. I also
think it would be good to put the word "Bartlett" into the ACF plot if
it's chosen.
I'm posting this here for discussion, maybe I'm misunderstanding the
intention or assumption for those Bartlett standard errors, since I
haven't checked the source code (yet).
OK, so no discussion took off. I think there are two sub-issues here:
First, the apparently missing documentation for the basic ACF/PACF
functionality. (Unless I overlooked something.) Secondly, pointing out
to the user what exactly the Bartlett standard errors there mean. (Also
a documentation thing.)
Any comments? Since I guess we're not going to write the documentation
for the upcoming release, I'm inclined to create tickets for these
issues, to come back to them in the future.
cheers
sven