gretl gets a somewhat greater
loglikelihood than x13as
x13as use absolutely different method: iterative GLS
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/77a0/3722ccff2226737ae78903d6005bb0f7549...
If substarct calling API time it can be ~100 times more fast
(it gives 3 sec with the same model)
R variant is essentially the same: exact lik. via Kalman in normal situations
as with (bjg) arima 0 1 1; 0 1 1; lg it is very similar in time and results and
loglik But when number of (S)MA terms increase something going on with the native arima
Also I attach my hansl code which makes safe inits:
It does exactly nothing in the situations when the current default works
and does something when it fails
Oleh
21 лютого 2018, 17:25:29, від "Allin Cottrell" <cottrell(a)wfu.edu>:
On Wed, 21 Feb 2018, oleg_komashko(a)ukr.net wrote:
when mle block fails to compute hessian it tries to compute opg
arima fails in such situations one should input --opg by hand
Thanks for pointing this out.
The intended behavior of "arma" is that we fall back to OPG for the
covariance matrix if computation of the Hessian fails -- unless the
--hessian option is given, in which case an error is flagged if the
request cannot be met.
This facility got broken at some point, but it's now reinstated in
git.
Speed:
With bjg.gdt arima 2 1 2; 2 1 2; lg takes ~60 seconds
(R's arima only ~ 14 seconds)
If insert [initializer] from arima 2 1 2; 2 1 2; lg --x-12-arima
with arima 2 1 2; 2 1 2; lg I have ~40 seconds: the gain from
very good inits gives very little
We're aware that our exact ML estimation of complex ARIMA models via
the Kalman filter is slow compared to some other software. This is
something we're looking into. One point to note is that our
implementation arguably offers "surplus precision" as it stands. For
the specification above, for example, gretl gets a somewhat greater
loglikelihood than x13as. (I haven't yet figured out how to get R's
arima() to estimate this model.)
Allin
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