Dear Sven,
to compare run in R
(Rgretl (0.22) and urca (last) shoul be installed
<R>
library(Rgretl)
library(urca)
wgmacro = open_gdt("wgmacro")
l_income = log(wgmacro$income)
tau = ur.df(l_income, type = "trend",lags=0)@teststat
tau3 = tau[1]
pvalue = punitroot(tau3, N = length(l_income), trend = "ct", statistic =
"t")
grscr =
'open wgmacro.gdt -q
adf 0 log(income) --ct -q
matrix test = $test
matrix pval = urcpval($test, $nobs, 1, 3)
'
gradf = run_grcli(grscr,output=list(matr=c("test","pval")))
# checking
abs(tau3 - gradf$test) # tau-stat
abs(pvalue - gradf$pval) #p-values
<R>
Oleh
5 листопада 2018, 21:43:33, від "Sven Schreiber" <svetosch(a)gmx.net>:
Am 05.11.18 um 20:27 schrieb Allin Cottrell:
On Mon, 5 Nov 2018, Sven Schreiber wrote:
> Am 05.11.18 um 16:53 schrieb Allin Cottrell:
>
>> But before changing gretl's behavior I'd want to take a look at what
>> other software does in this sort of case.
>>
> That is certainly wise.
"Everyone" (well, so far R and Stata) gives just what we do, namely
the cdf of the tau (or other relevant) distribution evaluated at the
observed statistic. So for tau > 0 the quoted p-values are close to
but less than 1.0.
My specific comparisons were with adf.test and pp.test in R (tseries)
and "dfuller" in Stata.
Thanks for checking, this is interesting of course. I will look around a
little bit for example in Stata user forums if there has been a
discussion about this issue. So far I still think it's wrong.
I don't think we want to go out on a limb on this point. Also, I think
it's possible to give a coherent interpretation of those p-values
close to but short of 1: namely, it's not _impossible_ that you could
get a positive tau in a finite sample even if the series in question
were stationary -- just very unlikely.
I still don't think p-values are meant for this interpretation. I guess
the most glaring incarnation of my problem with this is the case where
your estimate happens to be right at H0: bhat = b_0. (A probability-zero
event I know, but a useful thought experiment nonetheless.) How can you
_not_ have a p-value =1 in this case?? Otherwise it's possible in
principle to reject the null when the point estimate is identical to the
null value. This makes no sense to me.
thanks,
sven
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