A while ago, Sven, I started replicating Thomas&Christian's recession probability
forecasting exercise using gretl's probit environment and lags of the dependent. It
works quite well actually.
If I remember correctly the Kauppi/Saikonnen framework uses the lagged estimated
probabilites instead of the observable, right?
Artur
Am 26. Mai 2016 23:11:50 MESZ, schrieb "Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti"
<r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it>:
On Thu, 26 May 2016, Sven Schreiber wrote:
> Am 26.05.2016 um 17:57 schrieb Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti:
>> On Thu, 26 May 2016, Sven Schreiber wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> From the abstract: "... it shows in a time series setting the
>>> validity of the dynamic probit likelihood procedure when lags of
the
>>> dependent binary variable are used as regressors ..."
>>>
>>> Does gretl rely on this particular paper's findings?
>>
>> Well, in a way.
>>
>> Section 3 states quite clearly that maximising the standard
>> log-likelihood gives you perfctly standard inference.
>
> Right. Follow-up: What about h-step forecasting? Does gretl do it in
this
> case (I know, I should just try for myself...) and if so, does it do
the
> right thing? AFAI remember the forecasting was one of the main topics
of
> Kauppi&Saikkonen.
I don't know, I haven't read that one. You mean ReStat 2008, right?
I'll
read it asap.
-------------------------------------------------------
Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali (DiSES)
Università Politecnica delle Marche
(formerly known as Università di Ancona)
r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it
http://www2.econ.univpm.it/servizi/hpp/lucchetti
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