On Sun, 18 Dec 2016, Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti wrote:
On Sun, 18 Dec 2016, Allin Cottrell wrote:
> On Sun, 18 Dec 2016, Sven Schreiber wrote:
>
>> Am 17.12.2016 um 20:19 schrieb Allin Cottrell:
>>> Any duration model experts out there?
>>
>> No (well, not me at least... ;-)
>>
>>> The relevant pages of the article are 6-10. Here's my problem: their
>>> empirical survivor function (p. 10) involves counting cases where
>>> V_i(\theta) and C_i(\theta), for observations i, are greater than
>>> duration value t. But V_i and C_i are (if I'm reading the paper right)
>>> CDF values and therefore limited to [0,1], while the duration t is said
>>> on page 6 to be distributed on [0, \infty). So I don't see how these two
>>> terms can be meaningfully compared.
>>>
>>> I guess I'm missing some implicit mapping/transformation (maybe of t
>>> onto [0,1]?). Can anyone help?
>>
>> I see what you mean and just have a wild guess to offer: Maybe on p.10 in
>> the equations with the summations it should be V_i and C_i with tildes
>> instead. (So $\tilde{V}_i(\theta) > t$ etc.) This obviously is a
>> typo-based explanation, and I'm not at all sure.
>
> Thanks, Sven. That would make sense of the inequalities, but I think it
> would make nonsense of the broader argument on page 10. 8-/
I guess that Sven's typo argument should read like: we count the number of
times $V_i(\theta) > F_0(t)$, which is by definition the same as
$\tilde{V}(\theta) > t$.
But more in general: I'd try to contact the authors. The fact that a PhD
thesis defended in 2007 hasn't seen the light as a journal article is
definitely not a good sign. (But of course that means nothing certain:
each of us has some horror story from the publish-or-perish trenches.)
Thanks, and agreed. I've emailed Yongmiao Hong, one of the authors,
who is (still) a prof at Cornell. The test looks promising (in an
area where promising specification tests are hard to come by) but
the exposition as it stands is pretty clearly broken. We'll see if
it can be repaired.
Allin