I have found a sizable quantity of mis-specified
non-converging models due to vicious feedback loop:
to detect seasonal unit root I use OSCB test inside
auto_arima{lagreg}
this test
1) construct some artifical variables
2) use armax(3 0 0; 1 0 0) to compute some statistics
if the latter do not converges it uses armax(3 0 0; 0 0 0)
compute some statistics etc
the statistics from the last convergent model is compared
with simulated critical value
Non-convergence tends to cause detecting seasonal unit roots
But 197 may non-converge due to redundant constant
So it detected seasonal unit roots for season-adjusted data
With redundant seasonal differencing again a problem of
redundant constant evinced
I propose a palliative :
if in catch arima ...
$error > 0 to create a new extractor, say $badmodel
containing: final parameter values, lnl, gradient norm,
iterations number, abs values of polynomial roots
corresponding to final parameters and standard errors if
possible
This information can be useful for finding better specification
Oleh
P.S.
I'd like to have abs of pol. roots as a member of $model for
standard situation
22 жовтня 2018, 08:59:50, від "Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti"
<r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it>:
On Mon, 22 Oct 2018, oleg_komashko(a)ukr.net wrote:
> Dear all,
>
I'm sorry, Oleh, I don't quite understand what the problem is. Could you
be more specific?
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Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali (DiSES)
Università Politecnica delle Marche
(formerly known as Università di Ancona)
r.lucchetti(a)univpm.it
http://www2.econ.univpm.it/servizi/hpp/lucchetti
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