Am 03.01.2022 um 15:17 schrieb Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti:
On Mon, 3 Jan 2022, Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti wrote:
>
> Hi all (and happy new year),
>
> I just found that we have a bug when forecasting from a VECM with
> exogeneity restrictions (only with certain options for the
> deterministic part).
Some more on this: it seems that in the failing cases we don't
transcribe correctly the matrix (internally called B) that corresponds
to the "coeff" element of the returned "system" bundle, although the
$coeff accessor works ok. For example:
I tried to look around for some time in the source, but I'm lost. The
functions seem to be spread out over var.c, johansen.c, jrestrict.c (in
the plugin directory), gretl_restrict.c, and also irfboot.c.
There's also some mysterious stuff on the way, for example var->ifc. It
somehow seems to be connected to un unrestricted constant, but an
outside reader cannot be sure.
In any case it seems that the error message comes from the function
VAR_coeff_matrix_from_VECM in lib/src/irfboot.c, where it probably is
only due to historical reasons?
cheers
sven