On Sun, 13 Sep 2009, peter wrote:
I believe there is a bug in the Exponential Smoothing code. Using
example from Makridakis, Wheelwright, Hyndman, "Forecasting Methods and
Applications," 3e, table 4-3 on page 151, ...
[ gretl produces results which have to be lagged one period to
match those in the textbook. ]
Yes, you're right. The exact specification of the EMA formula
seems kind of arbitrary to me, but given that we offer EMA at all
we should abide by the most common convention.
I think this should now be fixed in CVS.